TamU-K has the last match of the spring season on Tuesday, and it is shaping out to be a big one. The opponent is Ikurin Vire, who are just two points behind us in the standings right now. With a win TamU-K goes to the break second in the table, five points ahead of major competitors behind us. At the same time Pelikassit would be just five points ahead of us (assuming they win TaPa 2 on Saturday), and we’d be within striking distance in case they start dropping points. With a loss, however, we drop to third one point behind Ikurin Vire and also the gap to Pelikassit starts to look too large.

The goal for the season is to be on the top of the table at the end and thereby gain direct promotion. However, the second place is a good secondary goal, because that gives a berth in the promotion playoffs, where two wins against other second-place teams in other subdivisions in Kutonen will earn promotion. Three points on Tuesday will put us in the driver’s seat in the race for the second spot, and also put us in an immediate striking position in case Pelikassit start dropping points in the fall.

Ikurin Vire as a club was founded in 1957. However, they are better known for their hockey team, and their current football division is just in their second year of existence. At the end of last season they were 9 points shy of promotion, and they came into the 2012 season with a clear goal of promotion. They started very well with three straight victories, but in the last four matches they have managed three points only against PiPo-79, who played the match with just seven men. In particular, they were almost completely toothless against Pelikassit in their last match, a 1-4 loss at home. I saw the match in person, and my notes from the match say that their defense is slow and their offense cannot shoot from distance. However, their midfield is quite strong and their goalie looked good.

If we were going into this match with our best team, I would be very confident about winning it. However, we have some key absences. In particular, Ahmed Lakra is again unavailable, and so is Mika Suonsyrjä. This leaves huge gaps in central defense and in central defensive midfield. Alaa Adeeb is also absent from the back line, but luckily we have a few good options for the full back positions. Similarly, I feel confident that the replacements for Mohammed El Harrak will be enough quality. Lastly, goalie Timo Iivonen is not in the lineup.

If we can organize our defense we are in good shape. For the other end of the field my prediction is that Isaac Gbehan will be able to create havoc in Vire’s slow defense. Assuming these two things hold, it comes down to our finishing. Indeed, we are dealing with the fundamentals of football here. There is no need to make this more complicated than it is.