TamU-K did not have a match this weekend, so instead of the usual match previews and match reports I thought this would be a good opportunity to look into the rest of the season. Coming off from a great win over Pelikassit a week ago, we are in a great position in that we still chase Pelikassit and are in the driver’s seat against Vire, who are still hoping to catch us and the crucial second spot and a berth in the promotion playoffs.

Both Pelikassit and Vire had matches this weekend, and I was hoping that they might drop points. It got close, but no such luck. Vire won YlöR/2 2-0 on Saturday in a match that could have gone either way. Indeed, the winning goal was from a penalty and the 2-0 was in part a result of Ryhti having to press for the equalizer. Pelikassit actually had two matches. On Saturday they won NePa Talent 1-0 by a last minute goal. On Sunday they had an easy 2-9 away victory against NoPS 3 at Siuro, as was of course expected.

This leaves the top of the table looking like this:

The next teams behind TamU-K are already 9 points behind, so with each team having 4-5 matches remaining, it is clear that the three at the top have run away from everybody else. Also note that TamU-K has a game in hand. As a reminder, the top team gets promoted to Vitonen, the second team goes into promotion playoffs, and the third gets nothing.

There are two feasible scenarios in which TamU-K could still reach Pelikassit, and both require us to win all of our five remaining matches. The first is one where Pelikassit loses two of their remaining matches, which would put us one point ahead of them. The second one has Pelikassit lose one and draw one. In that case we would be even in points, and promotion would be decided by the tie-breakers. The first tie-breaker is head-to-head results, but that is even, since we both won our home matches against each other 2-0. The winner would therefore be decided by the overall goal differential, or if that was even, by goals scored in all matches. Right now Pelikassit is slightly ahead in goal difference, as they are at +34 and TamU-K is at +29, but TamU-K has a match in hand to make up for this. The goals scored are equal, both teams at 47.

With Vire it is much more simple for us: if we win all our remaining matches, we do not need to worry about what Vire does. Tie-breakers could also come into play of course, but the head-to-head between us and them is not decided yet because we still have a match with them. It is in fact the last match of the (regular) season for both teams, and a lot could be at stake in that match. For example, if we both win all of our remaining matches until then, the winner of that match goes to the promotion playoffs and the loser remains stuck in Kutonen for another season.

Also of note is the fact that Vire and Pelikassit still have a match against each other, so at least one of them will be dropping points. Of course if it is Pelikassit and those are the only points they’ll drop, it wont help us at all. Vire has four matches left, and Pelikassit and TamU-K are the last two ones. I expect them to take care of the two opponents they meet earlier, which are TaPa 2 and PiPo-79, although TaPa 2 is always a bit of a question mark, because they can be dangerous if they get a lot of reinforcements from their first team. Pelikassit have four matches remaining too, and they are all against teams that might potentially cause them to drop points: AC Darra, YlöR/2, Vire, and TaPa 2. However, if they still need points in their last match against TaPa, I have no doubt they will get them.

All this speculation notwithstanding, one simple fact that has been true throughout the season remains: if we win all our remaining matches, we will get promoted. There is no reason to think this wont remain the case until the end of the season. There aren’t any easy matches remaining (except maybe for one), but I have full confidence that the team is up to the task.